UNRAVELING THE RHETORIC: THE CHALLENGES OF ANTI-CHINA CAMPAIGNS

Abstract

Money has historically played a pivotal role in U.S. presidential elections, but its influence is not always determinative of electoral outcomes. This study delves into the intriguing phenomenon where candidates, despite substantial financial advantages, failed to secure victory. By focusing on the utilization of campaign advertising, particularly the strategic deployment of anti-China rhetoric, we investigate how excessive spending on such advertisements can potentially backfire for candidates. In the realm of American presidential politics, anti-China rhetoric has become a recurrent theme, with candidates leveraging it to accuse opponents of policies favoring China at the expense of American interests. However, empirical investigations into the effectiveness of these rhetoric-driven strategies in garnering voter support remain scarce. This article addresses this research gap by employing a scientific methodology to assess the impact of anti-China rhetoric in campaign ads. We specifically examine whether the substantial financial investments made by presidential candidates in airing antiChina advertisements yield the desired electoral benefits or inadvertently harm their prospects. Our analysis draws upon data from Mitt Romney's 2012 "Failing American Workers" campaign commercial, sourced from the Wesleyan Media Project (WMP). Utilizing TimeSeries-Cross-Sectional (TSCS) models, we estimate the influence of the anti-China rhetoric within this ad on Romney's voter support. Our findings reveal a nuanced relationship between anti-China rhetoric in campaign advertising and candidate performance. On the whole, airing ads featuring anti-China rhetoric tended to enhance voter support for the candidate, particularly in targeted states, over time. However, a striking counterintuitive pattern emerged: the repetition and escalated spending on these ads within the same states correlated with a decrease in voter support for the candidate. This study offers critical insights into the dynamics of campaign advertising, shedding light on the complexities of messaging strategies and their impact on voter perceptions. Our results suggest that while anti-China rhetoric can be a potent tool for winning over voters, an excess of such messaging can lead to diminishing returns. The delicate balance between utilizing these rhetoric-driven ads effectively and avoiding voter fatigue becomes evident. This research not only contributes to our understanding of U.S. presidential elections but also offers valuable lessons for candidates and strategists navigating the intricate terrain of political campaigning.